THE 40/30 RULE: BEST PREDICTOR OF TEST SERIES

[Rush]

OK Folks!

The most accurate predictor of the winner of any test series between 2 teams is the 40/30 rule.

What is the 40/30 rule you ask ?

Well, the 40 represents batting average---for any test team---how many batsmen have a batting average 40 or more.

And the 30 represents bowling average---for any test team---how many bowlers have a bowling average of 30.00 or less.

APPLYING THE 40/30 rule:

When 2 teams meet in a test series---the team with the greater number of 40/30 players will emerge victorious 95% of the time.

Click here for team comparison


RE: UPCOMING SERIES WI VS ENGLAND

Click on that team comparison above---input WI and ENGLAND.


FOR THE WEST INDIES:

Only 3 batsmen(Kirk Edwards, Chanderpaul, and Bravo) average 40+.

Only 1 bowler average(Kemar Roach) 30.00 or less.

SO THE WEST INDIES HAS 4 40/30 PLAYERS.


FOR ENGLAND:

6 batsmen average 40 or more; 3 bowlers average 30.00 or more


CONCLUSION--THE 40/30 RULE AS A PREDICTOR

When a team with 4 40/30 players(the WI) plays a team with 9 40/30 players(England)----there is a 95% probability the team with the greater number of 40/30 players will emerge victorious---England will win the upcoming series----9 is greater than 4

Rush

[Rush]

RE: RECENTLY CONCLUDED WI/AUS SERIES

Punch in WI and AUS in the team comparison in the link:

TEAM COMPARISON

How many 40/30 players did Aus have ? How many did the WI have ?

Which team had the greater number of 40/30 players ?

THAT TEAM WON, RIGHT ?

Rush

[DMan]

Yes yes yes, we all know WI will lose against England in the upcoming series. What I want to know is how badly will they lose? Is there something to predict how badly they will lose?

[Gils]

Rush,

This 40/30 rule looks very practical & uncomplicated. Did this also apply to Engs last 2 tours ?

40/30 says WI have a 5% chance of winning, that's 1 in 20.

I Was looking forward to some cricket but now one eye will be on the weather.

[Rush]

Yes yes yes, we all know WI will lose against England in the upcoming series. What I want to know is how badly will they lose? Is there something to predict how badly they will lose?

How badly the WI will lose ?

The WI has 4 40/30 players; England has 9 40/30 players.

9 IS WAAAAY GREATER THAN 4

THE WI WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE ALL 3 TESTS----only rain can save them.

Rush

[howzdat]

Very interesting and thanks for the link to the howSTAT.

[Babulall]

The 40/30 rule is an excellent indicator of team strength!!!

Reminds me of the Batsman Consistency\Conversion Rate chart a while back

[Rush]

The 40/30 rule is an excellent indicator of team strength!!!

Reminds me of the Batsman Consistency\Conversion Rate chart a while back

Babu:

The CONSISTENCY guage was created by Sparky over at caribbeancricket.com----over the years hundreds of books and tens of thousand of articles have been written about batsmen and their consistency---the Sparkster is the only cricket fan on the planet to quantify what consistency really is----scores over fifty divided by total innings played and expressed as a percentage. He showed that many great batsmen have a CONSISTENCY of 35% or higher----they scored a fifty or a hundred in 35% of their innings played.

RE: SHIV CHANDERPAUL

He has scored 25 hundreds and 59 fifties(that's 84 scores over fifty) in 239 test innings---Shiv has a CONSISTENCY of 35.14%

Check out the CONSISTENCY of the 4 great West Indian batsmen who satisfy the Don Bradman 6000 runs/50+ avg benchmark for batting greatness:

37.91%...Viv Richards CONSISTENCY(69/182)

35.34%...Brian Lara's CONSISTENCY(82/232)

35.14%...Shiv Chanderpaul's CONSISTENCY(84/239)

35.00%...Gary Sobers CONSISTENCY(56/160)

Notice how similar Lara, Shiv and Sobers consistency are----of course Shiv's conversion rate is inferior to Lara and Sobers---and that explains Lara and Sobers having higher test averages.


RE: THE 40/30 RULE

CC Poster Sheik first came up with the 40/30 idea----I always thought Sheik was Sparky---but now I have a feeling Sheik is CC admin.

Rush

[BallOil]

I like the 40/30 rule and think its a good gauge to measure team success....

What I don't understand WI keep selecting batters who can hardly average 30 at the lowly regional level. How WI can improve clutching at straws with these 20 and 30 something players at the highest level?

[Rush]

I like the 40/30 rule and think its a good gauge to measure team success....

What I don't understand WI keep selecting batters who can hardly average 30 at the lowly regional level. How WI can improve clutching at straws with these 20 and 30 something players at the highest level ?

The cupboard is empty bally----how many batsmen in the caribbean currently average 40 or more in first class ?

CHECK OUT THESE FIRST CLASS AVERAGES:

37.54...Marlon Samuels

37.52...Barath

36.93...Deonarine

32.89...Powell

31.87...Fudadin

Did you see those first class averages----if those players can't average 40+ in first class----how do you think they will perform in tests ?


SOLUTION----WI young cricketers needs to play more first class cricket---more professionalism and discipline needed at the first class level---greater emphasis should be placed on mental preparation-----young players today are mentally weak----they gift their wickets easily---and are not prepared to battle it out at the wicket.

Rush