THE 40/30 RULE: BEST PREDICTOR OF TEST SERIES

[Rev]

The 40/30 predictor continues to be a good way of assessing the strengths of a side...give me that system over subjective views any day.

Yep! That 40/30 rule predictor is simple yet profound!


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Check out sa vs nz---from previous post:


THE 40/30 RULE: SOUTH AFRICA VS NEW ZEALAND

team comparisons--sa vs nz

* There are 6 sa batsmen who avg 40+ and 3 sa bowlers who avg 30 or less = 9 40/30 players

* There is one nz batsman who avg 40+ and 2 nz bowlers who avg 30 or less = 3 40/30 players


When a team(sa) with 9 40/30 players competed against a team(nz) with 3 40/30 players---it will be a onesided matchup.

Rev

[BallOil]

its not that easy for some, as I see some Windians keep saying that WI winning more that when they had the likes of Gayle, Sarwan, Lara, Shiv, et al.. I guess, they failed to realized who they were playing against..

[AFRO]

The 40/30 predictor continues to be a good way of assessing the strengths of a side...give me that system over subjective views any day.

For example, Afro continues to put down the achievements of Philander, solely because he doesn't bowl express pace like Steyn. What he fails to acknowledge is that Philander is an exceptional swing bowler, and right now he's destroying the NZ top order....

Roach is a good bowler, but the Saffer opening bowling partnership of Steyn and Philander is miles better than anything we can put out right now. Philander has played 12 Tests, and has an average of under 18...absolutely brilliant!

Stop telling fecking lies old boy!! , i've never downplayed Philander, i just say that you can't totally trust averages because though his average right now might be the best of any pacer he's clearly NOT the best pacer in the game right now, imo Steyn and Roach are better than him, Philander was impressive yesterday but lets be real, nz without their best batsman (Taylor) are just a disaster waiting to happen, and when you're bowling on a green top like there was always gonna be trouble.

[AFRO]

REV!!.. what about when NZ drew with SL the other day in a test series? SL have at least FIVE 40 average batsmen compared to Nz's two, Herath's average is 30 aswell with the ball, so the stats was in Sri-lanka's favor but yet Nz beat them easily in the second test, same thing when NZ drew in Australia last year aswell, so what happened in those two series that made the 40/30 fail?

[mikesiva]

The 40/30 predictor continues to be a good way of assessing the strengths of a side...give me that system over subjective views any day.

For example, Afro continues to put down the achievements of Philander, solely because he doesn't bowl express pace like Steyn. What he fails to acknowledge is that Philander is an exceptional swing bowler, and right now he's destroying the NZ top order....

Roach is a good bowler, but the Saffer opening bowling partnership of Steyn and Philander is miles better than anything we can put out right now. Philander has played 12 Tests, and has an average of under 18...absolutely brilliant!

Stop telling fecking lies old boy!! , i've never downplayed Philander, i just say that you can't totally trust averages because though his average right now might be the best of any pacer he's clearly NOT the best pacer in the game right now, imo Steyn and Roach are better than him, Philander was impressive yesterday but lets be real, nz without their best batsman (Taylor) are just a disaster waiting to happen, and when you're bowling on a green top like there was always gonna be trouble.

Afro claims he's not downplaying Philander as a bowler, and then what does he do? Downplay Philander by claiming that Roach is better than him!

A lesson for you, Afro...good fast bowling is not only about how fast you bowl. It's about where you put the ball, and what you do with it, and in the modern game, there's no one who can do that better than Philander. He might bowl at 80-82 mph, but he can make the ball sit up and talk. Did you see those dismissals in the first innings 45 all out by NZ?

Philander is miles better than Roach...you won't find anyone outside of the Caribbean supporting your spurious claims that Roach is a better Test bowler than Philander.

[Rev]

REV!!.. what about when NZ drew with SL the other day in a test series? SL have at least FIVE 40 average batsmen compared to Nz's two, Herath's average is 30 aswell with the ball, so the stats was in Sri-lanka's favor but yet Nz beat them easily in the second test, same thing when NZ drew in Australia last year aswell, so what happened in those two series that made the 40/30 fail?

Afro:

Go back and read the lead post---pay attention to how the rule is applied:

APPLYING THE 40/30 rule:

When 2 teams meet in a test series---the team with the greater number of 40/30 players will emerge victorious 95% of the time.


Now afro! The rule says there is a 95% chance the team with more 40/30 players will emerge victorious in a series--NOT 100%

RE: SL VS NZ

It is true that SL had 6 40/30 players while NZ only had 2---according to the 40/30 rule Sri Lanka had a 95% chance of winning that series.

Well, NZ pulled off an upset in the 2nd test---and the series ended up tied 1-1.


5% CHANCE!

Keep in mind that the 40/30 rule allows for a 5% chance that a team with less 40/30 players could emerge victorious in a series.

By the way, NZ did not win the series against SL---they just won one test and drew the series 1-1

REv

[BallOil]

But the 40/30 rule doesn't take into account players form, home advantage, umpire, weather etc...

[AFRO]

Afro claims he's not downplaying Philander as a bowler, and then what does he do? Downplay Philander by claiming that Roach is better than him!

A lesson for you, Afro...good fast bowling is not only about how fast you bowl. It's about where you put the ball, and what you do with it, and in the modern game, there's no one who can do that better than Philander. He might bowl at 80-82 mph, but he can make the ball sit up and talk. Did you see those dismissals in the first innings 45 all out by NZ?

Philander is miles better than Roach...you won't find anyone outside of the Caribbean supporting your spurious claims that Roach is a better Test bowler than Philander.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH what a deluded prick!!!.. , for a start ROACH HAD THE BEST STRIKE RATE OF ANY PACER LAST YEAR YOU IDIOT, and now lets look at two common opponants from last year shall we?

PHILANDER

Against England

1st test = 79/1 & 29/1

2nd test= 72/2 & 26/1

3rd test= 48/2 & 30/5


Against Australia

1st test= 103/0

2nd test= 55/2 & 42/2


ROACH

Against England

1st test 108/3 & 60/3

2nd test= 90/2 & 16/0

Against Australia

1st test= 72/3 & 45/2

2nd test= 105/5 & 41/5

3rd test= 71/1 & 40/3

So Roach got MORE WICKETS against those two opponants!! , also Philander only had ONE good innings when he got a 5fer against England, Roach not only has pace but incase your old, worn out eyes missed it HE CAN SWING IT BOTH WAYS AND GET MOVEMENT THROUGH THE AIR TOO, furthermore Philander has yet to bowl in Asia, a place where i believe he will find it most difficult to prosper, unlike Roach who already performed in Sri-lanka ,

But why should i be surprised that an ENGLISH SKUNT is backing a SA pacer ahead of a caribbean one? his dad supports India so i guess it's in the blood!! .

[Rev]

But the 40/30 rule doesn't take into account players form, home advantage, umpire, weather etc...

What's great about the 40/30 rule is its simplicity---forget about form, home advantage, etc

Take a look at the current Aus/SL series:

comparison of players

The 40/30 rule predicted that Aus had a 95% chance of winning the series----they have already won the series.


RE: the 30 in the 40/30

The 30 refers to bowling average----now if a bowler has an average of 30.70----he is included in the 40/30

At the start of the series---Aus had 7 40/30 players; SL had 6

So Aus had a 95% chance of winning the series according to 40/30

Rev

[Googley]

What's great about the 40/30 rule is its simplicity-

Mr. Chairman of ESC! well said.

however, you expect chaps like Afro to comprehend that? be kind to yourself and lower thy expectations!

btw -how are the sushi tasting these days?